Colin D Gordon

The dynamics ( & polemics) of the contest for London Mayor (election day: May 1st) have tended so far to revolve around the Congestion Charge, ‘bendy buses’, whether to bring back the Routemasters  and (inevitably) the personalities of the three main candidates. The incumbent, Ken Livingstone (Labour) views Boris Johnson (Conservative) as an upstart dilettante who should stay where he really belongs (ie: Henley-on-Thames). In return, he is portrayed as stuck with an out-of-date, 1980’s ‘Life On Mars’ mentality, mired in controversy over missing taxpayers’ millions and bereft of the energy & vision now required of the capital’s next leader. Former policeman Brian Paddick (Liberal Democrat) dismisses them both as  unsuitable for the job – thus if Londoners really want someone serious & competent, they should vote for him.

Livingstone’s dilemma is that Johnson (disparaged initially as a ‘blonde clown’) has been pulling ahead in the polls and might even win (unthinkable just a few months ago). The alarm in Labour ranks became evident when Prime Minister Gordon Brown ,not generally regarded as a ‘Ken enthusiast’, appeared in person at his campaign launch. At issue, of course, are London’s transport, crime and environmental problems. In particular, which (if any) of the three will be able to deliver on the £16 billion Crossrail scheme aimed at linkiug the east & west of the city. The Government confirmed the joint public/private sector/Tfl (Transport For London) funding in October 2007. Whoever becomes Mayor will also have to assume responsibility for the massive Thames Gateway Project – and indeed decide whether it should go ahead at all. Livingstone clearly would. The other two have voiced strong reservations about the entire undertaking.

The Thames Gateway has been officially heralded as a ‘priority area for new hosing and employment opportunities’ It will stretch for 40 miles along either side of the river from the Docklands east into Essex and Kent and include the former industrial parts of the boroughs of Lewisham, Tower Hamlets, Greenwich, Newham, Barking, a Dagenham, Havering and Bexley. If implemented – and the 160,000 new homes plus 180,000 jobs promised really do materialise – it would become Europe’s biggest & most ambitious regeneration project. There is considerable scepticsm whether all this can,should or will actually happen. Especially that the Government has ‘bitten off far more than it can chew’ and that delivery so far hasn’t matched expectations. Parliament’s Public Accounts Select Committee has concluded that it could all become a “public spending calamity’and that the Department for Communities and Local Government (DCLG) which is overseeing the enterprise is neither up to the job  nor has any idea what it will eventually cost the taxpayer. There are, it seems, “ too many agencies & funding streams involved. Without improved management it will remain a series of disjointed projects.” The Prime Minister has so far committed £16 billion to The Gateway.This is in addition to the controversial and spiralling bill for the 2012 Olympics. A major proportion of this expenditure will be on the Olympics Zone located at Stratford in the Borough of Newham.

Advocates of the Thames Gateway Project are adamant that it will boost the economy of the entire Thames Estuary region. What is currently marshland, farmland and brownfield (formerly industrial or commercial sites) will be utilised to build new towns, create employment and relieve the constant pressure for more housing in London and the south-east. Others are far less convinced. They point out that one major consequence of climate change will be rising sea levels. The Thames Estuary will thus become a potential flood risk zone. They are also concerned about the wider environmental impact, the prospect of increased erosion. and the extra strain on available water supplies. The North Thames Marshes are classified as an ‘Environmentally Sensitive Area’ by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs. Dr. Hilary Newport (Director of the Campaign to Protect Rural England in Kent) has pointed out that the 1.45 million people already living nearby are worried about ‘vanishing green spaces” ands are looking for Government assurances that they will be protected.

Boris Johnson believes the flood risk can be managed and that any new developments will take this risk into account. However, as he emphasised to ‘Live in London’: “We must not make the mistakes of the past. The new developments will be built with the needs of the future in mind and that means being environmentally and community friendly”.In his opinion the Government has completely failed London. He asserts that their record pales in comparison to what the last Conservative Government did in the Docklands (“ now a world financial centre in its own right with excellent transport links”.) He is determined to “ensure that we get this right for all Londoners but also that “spending doesn’t spiral out of control”. What is built in the Thames Gateway “must be sustainable, what people want and with adequate transport links”.

Brian Paddick rejects the current mayor’s hypothesis that the Thames Gateway is the ‘silver bullet’ solution to London’s expansion. Apart from threat of flooding, environmentally friendly transport infrastructure “is not there or planned, with Transport For London saying that additional buses will get people from the Thames Gateway into London where they will need to work”. He told ‘Live in London’ that “existing brown-field sites in and around Central London (including 25% of that land which is owned by public bodies such as Network Rail and the NHS) need to be ruthlessly exploited. Acquiring this land cheaply could enable affordable rented accommodation to be built”. He doesn’t want to see, either, more airports created (in the Thames Estuary or anywhere else). “We have to cap airport capacity: it’s a growing source of carbon emissions at a time when we are meant to be reducing them and it undermines the objectives of the Climate Change Bill to curb emissions by 2050. More flights will simply increase demand – we need more high speed trains, not short haul planes.”

So who will be running London  and making these crucial decisions over the next 4 years: Ken,Boris or Brian? On 2nd May,we’ll know the answer.

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